Covid: Trough to peak, cases and time, for Delta wave:
India: February 8, 9k cases to May 6, 414k = 3 months. Delta started here.
UK: May 3, 2k to July 17, 54k = 2 1/2 months. UK has similar vaccination rates to US.
Indonesia: May 15, 2k to July 15, 57k = 2 months. Unreliable data.
US: trough was June 20, 8k. 92k cases today.
Peak cases: 270k = 54k X 5 = proportional to UK peak
Peak date: August 20 = 2 months after trough. Peak-to-trough time seems to be compressing, which is why I am guessing it happens that soon. If I am wrong, the peak date will be later, by up to 2 weeks.
A national blood serum survey which tests for antibodies (known as a sero survey) was released on Tuesday which showed that two-thirds of India’s population have antibodies against Covid, Reuters reported
“In a completely unmitigated environment—where no one is vaccinated or wearing masks—it’s estimated that the average person infected with the original coronavirus strain will infect 2.5 other people,” Dr. Wilson says. “In the same environment, Delta would spread from one person to maybe 3.5 or 4 other people.” yalemedicine.org
The researchers analysed these patients, the first to be infected by Delta variant in mainland China, studying their viral load. The viral load is a measure of the density of viral particles in the body that is observed to understand the changing nature of the virus. The researchers found that the patients with the Delta variant had a viral load 1,260 times higher than those who contacted the original strain of Covid-19. indiatoday.in |
