It's time for the demohacks to panic... get ready for Speaker Boehner...
Earth to House Democrats: It’s time to push the panic button. But don’t take my word for it; consider the evidence.
Exhibit A: One of the country’s savviest political scientists, Emory’s Alan Abramowitz, has just published an analysis that says the GOP will pick up 39 seats in the House this November. On the good news side for Democrats, Abramowitz finds more safe seats this year than in 1994 (145 versus 114) and fewer that are marginal (42 versus 55) or that lean Republican (69 versus 87). And there are only 15 open seats this year in Republican-leaning districts, versus 24 in 1994. On this basis he concludes that a Republican tide as strong as it was in 1994 would yield fewer losses for Democrats, but still enough to lose their majority by the narrowest of margins.
Exhibit B: Another of the country’s most experienced survey researchers, Stan Greenberg, who’s hardly unsympathetic to the Democratic cause, has just come out with the most discouraging survey Democrats have seen since, well, his 1994 surveys. He surveyed 1,200 likely voters in the 60 most competitive Democrat-held districts and ten most competitive Republican-held districts. In Tier 1 (the 30 most vulnerable Democratic districts), Democrats trailed by 48 to 39 overall. In Tier 2 (the 30 next most vulnerable districts), they trailed by 47 to 45. And in the contestable Republican districts, they trailed 53 to 39.
The complete article below:
tnr.com
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