G,
Imho, it is you of those times where you have to hold your nose and buy. There is no way to know what the stock will do in the next 6 months. We can give better estimates of the direction the business is going in.
Your charts show amat is at the best relative value since the beginning of the year.(The one where the stock price has dropped below the order line, finally, after being waay above it.) It is not a great value vs. past cycles or the same levels of orders. It would be at 45, if orders hold up. Why not institute a purchase plan down to 45?
We did notice how incredibly well vs. past cycles amat's stock price held up in the last drop, and how it shot up on the turn farther and faster than before. The chances are, therefore, it simply won't get to the same bargain levels as before. Buying now has some downside, but the upside is awful big. If this is a fake out, ie, orders surge unexpectedly in the next 6 months and accelerate for the reasons Ian, Justa and Brian have been posting, the stock could hit 100. |
