FWIW, MPRS ranks #1 on my ROI estimates spreadsheet with an annualized expected return of 67% ... leading about 30 stocks quite handily.
I'm using a 50% averaged confidence level between two outcomes:
upside = 1.5 -> 4 within 0.75 years = 167% upside
downside = 1.5 -> 2 within 0.75 years = 33% upside
Upside case calls for success in several new games spiking
a seasonal or cyclical high later this year.
Downside case calls for no major new signs, at which point
I bail with a random volitility gain if I become convinced
the management/vision/execution has become inert.
Position bailpoint would probably be in Aug-Sep timeframe.
Also, I would trade around any split action whose outcome
was not absolutely understood, which for this stock would
probably mean ANY action.
Other winners on my balanced ROI list include: VLNC, ASND, KIWT, BAY, ADPT, ALKM ... the creamiest upside/downside balances.
As you might guess, I only consider myself a reasonable guesser re networking, PC components, and games.
I'll be buying more MPRS ... |
