George/all re:"Tom's Gold":
< I don't see a case for it for a while unless there is an international crisis> I'd like to give some background to my opinion (sure as hell don't mean I'm right). Well having watched gold react or not react to various events over the last few years, I take the contrarian view. I think the worst time to buy gold is the event of in international crisis as the powers that be have shown they'll do all they can to suppress (ie interfere with the "free" market) the price of gold particularly at those times of crisis and inflation. There's a big lawsuit currently underway from GATA (Gold Anti Trust Action committee) investigating just that.
Not sure about what's been happening in you other folks areas, but I've seen my new car/truck prices double as well as much real estate prices and rents. During the same period I've seldom had a chance to get 5% interest rates on savings. They've grossly eroded the buying power of our savings and I call that inflation. Greenspan says there's no inflation, "just look at gold". So based on what I've seen vs what I've been told, if gold now goes down during the Asian and Russian crisis and times of inflation, they should let it go back to its equilibrium value now that that's passed. Not that gold can't go any lower or course, but the current selling price is less than what many can pull it out of the ground for.
Lastly note that gold and the gold stocks I mentioned suddenly started taking a multi-year dive about the time of Clinton's re-election in '96:
siliconinvestor.com
the birth of the gold-carry trade. There's currently a short position in gold equal to about 4 years production that in a free market would have to be paid back. This is by no means a sure thing (or a free market IMO), but I'm looking at the risk vs reward in those charts if gold were at least allowed to sell above its costs of production. IMO, that will be allowed when people aren't trying to use it to run to safety in a crisis as that will hurt the dollar and it's the power's that be's job to protect the dollar.
Just want you to know where I'm coming from. I'm not a gold bug and didn't ride them down, but like DEC at $25, I'm seeing possible undervaluation. Beware, gold is the political metal, nothing else seems to matter to it.
regards,
Tom |
