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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis

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To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (32375)	10/10/2000 12:55:19 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) of 42787

Dan I see it too..and when we do get out of this rut the Naz will do it, ( I'm not so sure about the Sox ). The rotation out of tech into the so called old economy stocks wont work, and thats what has held the S&P and Dow up. ------------- I don't want to guess when they will capitulate but I can't picture a final bottom until they do. My guess is we get a rotation back into the NAZ and rally before or after EX date , then another dip to the down side taking the S&P with it the next time. But that guess is very ify and I hope it's wrong. There has been a broadening and the S&P has been flat long enough perhaps it won't have to dip. I like to keep an eye on this chart finance.yahoo.com^VLIC&d=5ym as you see it peaked way back in 98 , and has been in a bear market ever since. ( sort of stealth bear market ) WE hear about all the high flyers all the time, but there are a lot that just haven't done fraz , and a lot of "state pension" funds haven't done any better than the value line. ------------- Well the value line has been trying hard to improve heaven knows it's had time to base. finance.yahoo.com^VLIC&d=1ym each low since March has been a tad better and I'm hoping it will hold that pattern but we are sitting right on the border line today , and if it starts making lower lows then pressure comes on to many pension funds and they just won't commit more money to the market but will buy bonds instead. ---------- It's sort of touch and go right here.. If any thing I don't want to see the value line close on a lower low, I'm afraid if it does any rally we get will not hold. Jim PS The so called Wealth effect is myth.."most pension funds" are a long way from having made any money since early 98. Most are down 10% to 25% ; with some as much as 50%.. The value line is the forgotten inex, like Korea is the forgotten war. Too bad they forgot Korea..had they remembered it we may not have gotten so deep in the Vietnam mess. Jim

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