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Strategies & Market Trends : Taking Advantage of a Sharply Changing Environment

NRG 159.64

-1.2%

Jan 6 3:59 PM EST

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To: Doug R who wrote (3218)	3/14/2020 9:24:24 AM
From: Doug R	of 6362

"... in the U.S. Results: With the most likely model, we estimated that there would be 9,484 infected cases (90%CI 2,054-24,241) as of 03/01/2020 if no intervention procedure had been taken to reduce the transmissibility in unidentified cases. Assuming current preventive procedures have reduced 25% of the transmissibility in unidentified cases, the number of infected cases would be 1,043 (90%CI 107-2,474). Conclusion: Our research indicates that, as of 03/01/2020., it is likely that there are already thousands of individuals in the US infected with SARS-CoV-2. Our model is dynamic and is available to the research community to further evaluate as the situation becomes clearer." medrxiv.org about 150k by later next week. It's been pretty "free to roam the cabin" here for quite a while so these numbers may likely be conservative.

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