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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: sjemmeri who wrote (32345)10/10/2008 4:35:33 AM
From: Don Earl2 Recommendations   of 78682
 
RE: "I think all regular participants on this board firmly believe they can exceed that return in the long run."

That's always the belief. The Wilshire 5000 is down 40% for the year, 20% of that in the past week. The more diversified a portfolio, the more certain it is to track the market as a whole.

Gold on the other hand is up 10% for the week. Dollar for dollar, it beat the market by 30%. The only way to beat the market is to limit your exposure to the market. There might be one or two times per decade that stocks truly represent a good value. Those are the only times it is anything other than financial suicide to own stock. There are also maybe one or two times per decade that it makes sense to short the market. At those times out of the money index puts, a year or more out, are the best value.

The rest of the time, the stock market is nothing more than a fancy way for compulsive gamblers to lose money.
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