Hi John,
Your story is familiar.
I traded AAPL a few times earlier in the year. Then I bought the stock just before earnings in early October and decided I wanted to keep it for a while. I trailed a stop, which was just a bit too tight. In early November I got stopped out on a brief intraday dip. I spent the next month or so waiting for another chance to buy. Finally AAPL corrected 3 or 4 days in a row, and I bought. Added to the position a bit later when it corrected again.
So my experience is that in the last 5 months or so, AAPL does not offer many chances to buy the stock "cheap."
So you have to take advantage of what the stock offers, and don't expect it to correct to an extent that you might for other stocks. AAPL is just too strong. It just won't correct very much, even when the analysts try to trash it. I don't think you will find much of a better opportunity to buy it before earnings. The price now is fairly decent by AAPL standards. And, if they blow out earnings, and you are not holding the stock, you will not get another chance to buy the stock at these levels for a long long time, if ever.
I have looked carefully at AAPL's earnings record and posted what I found on this thread. I might be proven wrong, but I think the chances are very high that AAPL will once again beat consensus. Together with the much-anticipated announcements of new products etc. during the convention Jan 6 - 12, I think if my scenario plays out, AAPL will take off with a gap up, and it won't look back.
It is clear in watching the patterns and analyst jockeying, that there are plenty of big clients that are either in that stock, or trying to get in cheap or add to positions. And I think these facts will power a sustained rally in AAPL well into next year.
So, this is about as good a buying opportunity as I think AAPL will give you.
.....JMVHO...
T
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