PEAK OIL - The New Y2K or The Beginning of the Real End? Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : PEAK OIL - The New Y2K or The Beginning of the Real End?

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To: Doug R who wrote (324)	4/14/2005 1:58:07 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (2) of 1183

I agree that 15 years is not out of line. This may be OK or too long depending when we start, what % decline of oil is there in the meantime and how effective are stopgap solutions (gas, coal, shale, tarsands, whatever). I am not forgetting that stopgap solutions need investments themselves. I think it is quite difficult to model the situation beforehand. In the best case we have national (and international) Manhattan project, discover affordable fusion soon and use the resources to get to the energy-sufficiency-based-on-fusion asap (fission self-sufficiency may be less likely, but still possible - and we don't need to discover anything). In the worst case, the doomsday scenarios happen that I don't need to repeat here. There are a lot of middle ground cases that are most likely IMHO. But I would not dare to predict what exactly they are. Jurgis not Predictor

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