Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: HH who wrote (3227)	11/19/1997 8:37:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (4) of 95453

To prove that I'm not a pure TA guy, I have this specially prepared for you Heyward. Below is a table I put together using today's closing price for calculation and 12/98 fiscal year estimate as of 9/30/97 (outdated I know, so please add 10-20% adjustment as you see fit but it does not change the overall picture). Company Today % Dec. from top 12/98 FY mean Next year PE ======== ===== =============== ============= ============ CDG 63 - 23% 4.08 15.4 ESV 36.75 - 22% 2.22 16.6 FLC 31.75 - 26% 1.99 16.0 RIG 49.125 - 19% 2.90 16.9 RB 36.875 - 26% 2.47 14.9 DO 53.31 - 21% 3.17 16.8 ATW 102.1 - 17% 5.96 17.1 PDE 26.5 - 30% 1.95 13.6 MDCO 24.5 - 32% 1.72 14.2 RDC 36.0 - 18% 2.47 14.6 NE 30.5 - 20% 1.98 15.4 GLM 26.75 - 27% 1.99 13.4 SDC 42.25 - 26% 3.00 14.1 NBR 36.75 - 21% 1.49 (9/98) 22.7 PTEN 38.5 - 41% 1.88 20.5 PKD 13.625 - 24% 0.60 (8/98) 22.7 GW 6.75 - 32% 0.26 26.0 UTI 28.3 - 42% 1.21 23.3 RON 60.875 - 26% 3.25 18.7 EVI 51.75 - 29% 3.00 17.3 KEG 26.625 - 31% 1.19 (6/98) 22.4 BJS 78.0 - 16% 3.50 (9/98) 21.7 A couple observations: 1) Surprised how closely the 12/98 PE are for the offshore group drillers (13.4 - 17.1) and the land group drillers (20.5 - 26.0) 2) Land carries higher PE because people believe their next year growth rate is going to be more explosive than the offshore drillers. 3) The deepwater/harsh-condition drillers (RIG, DO, ATW) carry slightly higher premium because of their exposure and growth rate. 4) Overall, very impressed with how players in the same group are valued so closely right now. This means valuation is very coherent from company to company and perceived valuation will soon become the reason for the upcoming rally. One player not listed is PDS, the Canadian company and personal favorite for the biggest upside potential. I believe they have the lowest next year PE according to Stocksmart.

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