A challenge to Mr.Watts
Rocky vs. Mr.Watts
Since Philly is up and running strong, and we've been flailing on the ropes lately, I thought this would be an appropriate theme.
Strap on those gloves, patch up that bloodied eye, the pummeling may not be over Rocky. A few tough rounds remain ahead.
I am convinced that Mr.Watts at Merrill Lynch has deliberately set us up for a fall on 4/19 by issuing this "35,00" subs estimate exactly 2 wks before the CC.
Remember last time how Watts claimed he had been "talking with several resellers"? (When in fact that was probably a lie and he'd rather been talking to people he shouldn't have been talking to). He claimed that reseller activity was lackluster, and from that concluded that sub numbers would be poor. (I don't recall what he had projected, maybe someone here recalls?). But in any event, he claimed this anecdotal evidence which proved to be correct. This time around he apparently hasn't spoken with any resellers (at least he doesn't say he has) and yet he's calling for 35,000 new Ricochet subscribers! Amazing.
Frankly I don't think Mr.Watts has been talking with anyone. The truth is he doesn't have the faintest idea what subs'll come in at, but he's highly confident, there won't be 35,000. What, he's lying you ask?
Yes. He's lying. Fabricating. Fudding. Whatever you wanna call it. Let's just look at the facts. Last qtr. we only had 9600 new subscribers. (35,000 total between the old Ricochet service at 28.8k, and the new octane service at 128k+).
So to predict 35,000 new subs is off the wall (so to speak). Especially when it is no secret, and you've made it widely known, that you expect MCOM to be the next bankrupt telecom provider.
I challenge Mr.Watts to come on this board and answer a few questons and defend his position. First, I'd like to know:
1) How did you arrive at your 35000 sub figure for Q1 ?
2) Why are you making this prediction 2 wks before the CC?
3) Since 35000 is an incredibly rosy estimate, are you now changing your position on Metricom, and upgrading?
4) Your year-end call is for 210,000 subs. Where do you stand on that now that MCOM is growing at 261% qtr over qtr?
All I can say friends is these analysts need to be held accountable. Just like the rest of us, right?
Don't for one minute be fooled by Mr.Watts' motives. His 35k sub call is transparent. He wants your shares. he wants my shares. He wants to shake loose any wavering longs that might still be out there.
And if sub numbers are within 10% of 35,000 I will issue Mr.Watts a personal apology, and retract everything I said about the man and his motives.
I'm looking at all the facts and believe Metricom mngt renegotiate their financial commitments sucessfully. I believe Worldcom and other resellers will slowly get the Ricochet train rolling and VV and/or other entities will pull out their wallets to give MCOM a chance.
Also, I believe a change in CEOs could be a great help because the street despised TD. If Mr.Derrickson exudes confidence and has some personal communication skills that TD didn't possess, then we could have a nice turnaround story and the wolves may keep their distance.
In the end it's all about leadership and instilling faith on the street. Mr.Derrickson's background suggests he may have these qualities. We'll see.
Have a great weekend everybody!
Charlie |
