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Pastimes : Trading the markets.....

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (3254)	2/5/2001 9:32:31 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 4583

Hi GZ, Just came back from a Bank One "economic summit dinner".I utilize Bank One as my floorplan bank and was invited accordingly. I'm 48 and was one of the youngsters there - it was the Geritol club for sure. Knew I was in truble as they talked about bonds and cash - I stood up at the end and screamed for Bill Hueb - but he wasn't there - HEHEHEHEHE - NOW I'M IN TROUBLE.ggggg Main economist said "No Recession". Took stronger than expected auto sales in January as a plus - I must agree. Major emphasis on this year was sideways and best winners would be "mid-cap value".Bonds " clip the coupon only". They all but reveled in the fact that last year they "told you so" that ".com were .bombs".People have become "addicted to technology" and evaluations were still high. I've looked at my semi's and they all look weak (very short term). Glad I lightened up on Nvls - looking to buy it back cheaper - it has now dropped to the 40 day sma and is at the 50 day expma and is 3 points from the 50 day sma. It's getting very close to the time to buy the dips. Or We have an October 1998. HEHEHEHE THAT WOULD BE A GIFT !!!! I'm watching closely - ready for any value they serve me. Bob Economist pointed out that productivity usually dips before a recession and that hasn't occurred.He felt the Euro would relatively be strong as they hadn't cut rates and it would attract some repatriated investment, as it paid a relatively better rate. He thought Japan was in trouble as the government projects hadn't stimulated much of an improvement domestically and the Japanese gov't was almost as bad a deficit spender as Italy - with no avail and that wouldn't last much more. Thought the yen was destined for more weakness - which I didn't want to hear as a domestic car dealer. They thought Telecom debt might get to be a real problem. They thought That the California electrical problem was worthy of watching and could be a serious problem if it spread to the West Coast (which it has ) and then perhaps further. Some interesting numbers thrown out. The price of oil has extracted a 100 billion cost to the American people. We use 19 million barrels a day and domestically produce 6.5 million. The Real Estate Boom has created 3 Trillion in equity. The stock market has created 7 Trillion in equity. The government wants their "fair share of both in taxes" - thusly the surplus and AG's NEED to keep the stock market valued properly. I'm going to bed and wake up looking to steal some overvalued techs - cause I just can't get excited about a 12 year cycle in Value. HEHEHEHE Remember where you heard it first. Bob

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