I guess we have come to the conclusion that TRKN is either about to get a major order or is about to be bought out.
Major order....TRKN has the potential of getting a major order for their Oxide etch, PVD or their Flowfill. At .25u others can do all the other etch processes, therefore, I doubt that they will get any major orders for poly or metal etch.
Oxide etch....it's still too new...so far they have only sold R&D units...so I doubt they will be getting any major oxide etch orders anytime soon.
PVD....this is a possibility, however, their major existing customers are not under going any major expansion. Plus people are waiting for Cu.
Flowfill....low k is still in R&D, so I doubt any major orders would be pending. Regular Flowfill could be a possibility, but I'm sure every major buyer has already selected their .25u CVD tool, and Flowfill would be a big process change vs the plasma CVD process.
Unfortunately, I don't think that the stock price recently has been based on a major order....I'm sure TRKN would have announced it by now.
I suspect that the odds are favoring a buyout of TRKN....Sept and Oct call option trading have gone up recently. I think people are expecting something soon. The question is who....NVLS has no cash or the market cap to buy TRKN....that leaves AMAT, LRCX and KLAC.
TRKN hates AMAT...so I doubt that they would have a friendly buyout, and if it was hostile, we would have heard about it. Plus AMAT has enough money for R&D that they could develop competing technology sooner or later. And it may be sooner....
That leaves LRCX and KLAC.....both are TRKN friendly buyers. Greg and Bagley are buddies and the CEO of KLAC is on TRKN's board. LRCX has the most to gain in a merger....they have etch products that are having problems in the .25u and their CVD is dead and they don't have any PVD tools. This would really help them out. For KLAC this would be a big step into a new territory...so I'm not so sure if they will want to get in this market.
LRCX just raised $300MM....and has another $160MM in the bank....plus a bloated stock.....they could easily buyout TRKN. Question is how much are they willing to pay. I think Dobson is the key here....he has 4.8 million shares and I think he will want to atleast breakeven...so the question is...what price did he get his shares at....that may determine the minimum selling price.
Just a guess on my part!!. Also, I wonder what the IR guy is doing up here in LRCX territory??
dave |
