<<1. Looking back we may have learned a lot from the ASND experience and ready to benefit from it. ASND was facing the dreary questions of UNCERTAINTY during 4q97 but IS FACING THE NORMAL QUESTIONS OF how much opportunity (price appreciation) do we have from here.>>
Jan, excellent post. I think you have hit the nail on the head here.
Given the known 56K and TNT Software (plus mgt internal problems that aggravated this, like once a month review meetings and a less than conservative handling of the street), we could debate who is gaining or losing market share endlessly without resolution because we need more data that we won't have for a couple of months.
The point is not whether we lost or gained market share in RAS in 1997, but where we go from here.
ASND started 1997 in the $70s and started 1998 at $23. We now have all the carrier level opportunities that the CSCC merger provides, and the combination of technologies (TNT+GRF, GX550+GRF, DSLTNT, etc.) that will move ASND foreward from here.
The best words I think from the Montgomery conference were 3 things:
1) The carrier/telco opportunity is "immense" - and ASND is there with the right products at the right time. No one else (CSCO, COMS, BAY, CS, NN) is positioned so well to go after this market, at this time.
2) Europe is about to move. We know the GX-550 is being tested by several European telcos and that the preliminary feedback is excellent. The GX-550 is potentially a "killer" product per BARS, so ASND could see some big wins here in 1998.
3) MCI post-merger is relooking at it's almost finalized decision to go with non-ASND equipment.
This is very positive, because it has to mean that WCOM asked for this review. It makes good sense, because you want to standardize vendors and equipment as much as possible for many reasons.
IMO, ASND's prospects for 1998 and beyond are excellent. I want to see another win soon, so I can post my song again! <VBG> |
