America On-Line: will it survive ...? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?

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To: Guy E. Fleming who wrote (3281)	5/31/1997 10:47:00 AM
From: Todd Daniels	of 13594

More important than issue of AOL loosing subs is growth of them. The market will not respond kindly to major slowing. Computer Retail Week, bible of the PC retailing industry, has been reporting Consumer Electronics Manufacturers' Industry Assn. weekly surveys of PC purchasing. Basically the pattern has been that growth of the installed base -- major source of new AOL subs -- has slowed dramatically from those upon which AOL's growth to 8m rode. Now most sales are to existing owners. (excerpts below. full text at URL) The numbers say that projections such as H&Q's for 3m annual sub growth are waaay optimistic. The Street's giving AOL points for saying it will keep marketing expense at 20% of revenues. But AOL has no choice. It's already sent discs five times over to every PC owner. And new ones just aren't coming like they used to. techweb.cmp.com Home-computer purchases hit fourteen week low The number of consumers who purchased a home PC within the past 30 days sank almost four-tenths of 1 percent, to 0.61 percent of respondents. That is almost half a percentage point off the pace of the 14-week moving average The number of consumers upgrading their systems jumped last week, to 46.7 percent of those respondents who bought a PC during the prior 30 days exceeding the 14-week average by almost 15 percent. Households buying their first computer fell to 6.7 percent of purchasers

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