Re BK, our Affiliate KNOWS Differently that you do: Stock Focus: Stock-Picking Contest Update Tricia McGinnis, Forbes.com, 05.14.01, 8:24 AM ET
NEW YORK - Back in November, Forbes asked 17 Wall Street pros to pick
just one stock that they thought would be a winner or loser over the
following 12 months. At the halfway mark, the bears are on top.
The score so far? The five short picks are down an average 45%, handily
outpacing the loss of 8% in the Standard and Poor's 500. Only six of 12
bulls are in positive territory. As a group, however, the bulls are down 4%.
Stephen Worthington of Barbary Coast Capital Management scored big
with his short pick, Metricom (nasdaq: MCOM - news - people), a provider
of mobile wireless data services. Metricom shares are down 68% since
the start of our contest.
Metricom shelved its plans to expand its Ricochet Wireless-Internet
network and cut almost a quarter of its staff this year. Worthington remains
heavily bearish about the company and its prospects for survival. "The
equity to finance this business isn't there and the user demand isn't there
either," says Worthington.
Two of our other successful bears are also looking pretty smart because
of the downturn in the technology sector. Chipmaker Transmeta (nasdaq:
TMTA - news - people) was the short pick of William E. Seale of ProFund
Advisors, who doubted that the company's highly touted Crusoe chip could
compete successfully against Intel's (nasdaq: INTC - news - people)
microprocessors. Transmeta is landing a few contracts with leading
laptop makers like Toshiba, but its shares are off 65% since last
November.
Juniper Networks (nasdaq: JNPR - news - people) hit a high of $245 last
year but First Austin's Mark Coffelt advised shorting the stock when it was
down to $164.55 per share. It was no bargain at that price, as the stock
now trades at $54.26. Despite its tumbling shares, Juniper reported $59
million in first-quarter profits, a 624% increase over the same quarter a
year earlier.
What about the bulls? Midway through the contest, Byron R. Wien of
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter is ahead of the pack. He picked upscale
discounter Target (nyse: TGT - news - people). Target's shares have
steadily climbed since November and are up 52% to date.
Target earned 61 cents per share in the fourth quarter (ended in January),
beating Thomson Financial/IBES consensus estimates by 2 cents, and its
sales for the five weeks ended April 7 are up 8.4% over the same period
last year. Analysts expect the company to post an 11% profit increase in its
current fiscal year.
Other winning bulls include Thyra Zerhusen of Alleghany Funds, who
picked American Power Conversion (nasdaq: APCC - news - people),
which manufactures devices to protect electronic gear from power failures
and surges. American Power is up 37% since the start of the contest.
Computer users in California all need this type of equipment.
Home Depot (nyse: HD - news - people) is ahead 33% for David Elias of
Elias Asset Management, while timber company Rayonier (nyse: RYN -
news - people) holds a 24% gain for First Eagle SoGen Funds'
Jean-Marie Eveillard.
In this uncertain market, a comfortable midway lead holds no guarantee
for the next six months. We'll be back in print and on the Web in about six
months with the final results and a roster of new and returning
contestants and their picks.
forbes.com |
