"This is NOT because of CYMI's lasers but with technical issues associated with production. There is a risk to CYMI of push outs by Nikon & Cannon (that can't fully be made up by SVGI & ASMLF) over the next 2 quarters. Nikon and Cannon represent a large portion of CYMI's
sales and the worry is that they may miss a quarter or two."
Until we hear just what this stepper production problem is, I think there is good cause for concern. First let me give some background information, and then I'll explain what bothers me.
I know little about semiconductor manufacturing, except what I've been able to put together on this thread from some very knowledgeable people. I am a finacial economist living and working in Hong Kong.
What I do know is that ALL Asian economies are rigged from top to bottom, and none more so than Japan. Those of you who think Cymer is competing in the Japanese market on the basis of price and quality are misinformed. I would bet long tha the only reason any Japanese firm would buy technology like DUV lasers from Cymer is that they simply could not get them from a Japanese firm. The other side of that issue is that they will buy from any Japanese firm that can supply them over any non-Japanese manufacturer.
Indeed, it would not surprise me in the least if they were to delay their ramp-up to the new 25 micron chip as much as possible in an effort to help Komatsu along as much as possible. I don't know if there are any keiretsu connections here, but I am deeply suspicious of this stretching out of orders, etc. at precisely the time when Komatsu is coming on line with a technology that can supply them with the lasers they need. AGAIN, in my mind, it won't matter if the lasers are inferior or more expensive, if they work AND they're Japanese, they'll be preferable.
In light of this, I think some (1) some of the future EPS projections are very uncertain, as is (2) the long term viability of some of the contracts.
I welcome any and all criticism of this note, especially from THC who lives and works in Japan.
Jess. |
