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Technology Stocks : Renren
RENN 1.650-2.9%Jun 21 5:00 PM EST
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To: ChinuSFO who wrote (32)5/6/2011 2:25:40 AM
From: FR12 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) of 310
 
Here is what I am thinking - In a place like China politics dominates everything.

The Chinese government is very concerned about controlling the internet because it allows then to "spy" on the public and control any political dissent.

So the game plan is to bar foreign businesses and clone whatever is popular with a Chinese company that the government can easily control.

What this means to us is that there will be a Google clone, Twitter clone, Youtube clone and Facebook clone each of which has the government's blessing. There may be room for more than one big company in each field but not very many because too much competition makes it difficult for the government to oversee.

So it seems to me that you want to invest in whoever will win each of these categories.

Google - The Google war is over and BIDU won that one so you need to buy it.

Twitter - It may be the case that SINA has the twitter clone wrapped up. Their 5/17 earnings call will be real interesting. So I need to buy SINA.

Now comes the question - Who will be allowed to dominate the YouTube space and Facebook space? You would think YOKU for YouTube but they just announced that they will have to dilute their shares with another stock offering. RENN is currently the only public company saying they claim the Facebook space and first mover advantage is a big thing in this game.

One thing I have noticed is that for most of the IPOs they will spike up on opening and then sell off big. After that sell off the strong will come back and the weak will never recover from the sell off. Look at a chart of DANG and YOKU and you will see what i mean.
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