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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout
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To: maceng2 who wrote (33073)2/18/2021 7:00:42 PM
From: GUNSNGOLD1 Recommendation

Recommended By
roguedolphin

   of 50758
 
Yes, I agree the "Dollar" will be around a long time, however in the world history of money three things have always happened.

1. Fiat/Paper has always returned to its intrinsic value of Zero.

2. World reserve currencies normally have a 100 year life span before they need to be reset.

3. World reserve currencies change.

Number 1 normally happens concurrently with number 2.

Number 2 can happen independently of number 1.

Number 3 normally occurs with number 2.

I agree we aren't facing 1 but I believe the clock on 2 is about to run out.

When you have bank panics in either 1,2, or 3 cash isn't "safe".

If the dollar isn't reset this time, then we aren't facing GBOAT, because if they reflate this time without going through a reset then the issue won't be a bubble it will be a sphere the size of Jupiter.

So although the fundamentals of other foreign currencies and banks make the dollar look like a safe haven, it is the cycles of history and the 100 year Reserve Currency reset that concern me.

You have laid out the case that number 1's probability is low and that China isn't ready to replace the US so 3 is low, however I do see a high probability for 2.

Re-setting of the US Dollar will result in a reset of all currencies because they are basically a derivative of the dollar.
'
The banks and MMMF's have all modified their terms of service and prospectus' to ensure the loses in the next banking crisis are borne by the depositors.

The only place I believe you will be safe is with a Treasury direct account, however if you choose to cash in your treasuries the Treasury will only deposit them in bank or credit union and then you are subject to the haircut that any depositor will face in trying to access their cash.

That is my perspective but l appreciate all opinions.

George S. Patton was apt to say "If we are all thinking alike, then nobody is thinking at all"

G-n-G
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