Nonscientific, nonquantative review is mixed. You probably could have gotten a short off/bought puts on CNXS, NSCP, and probably CIG, probably not on Snapple (no shares available). I think the other problem is determining what is truly the break versus a fakeout. One must acknowledge many of these volatile stocks do go down 10-20% and then bounce back. So one is at risk of waiting to establish your short, shorting at a lower price, and still having the stock move against you.
Also, I can not plan on watching the market every hour of every trading day. I think especially in the case of DDIM any break will be very sharp. I've got a bad feeling it'll break when I'm away for a couple of days and would not get an opportunity to put a short on. Anyway, I doubt we'll resolve this issue and your point is well taken. I admit I'm at risk of being early, but I am willing to stomach that risk.
I agree I'd love to short AOL, LCOS, XCIT, and YHOO but have also stayed away. My nightmare is to accidentally short an MS or INTL. Although I think the internet/content companies have extraordinarily long odds of justifying their current valuations, I've restrained from placing any bets yet. I'm reminded of the poor guys who shorted cable stocks in the early '80s because they looked expensive on an earnings or cash flow multiple. Suddenly they start consolidating based on market cap per subscriber and the shorts got toasted. I think there is some chance of something similar occurring in the internet stocks.
OFF TOPIC I had cousins in Appleton and have been up there a number of times. I tubed that river (Apple?) at least twice. That was FUN. Sorry, I don't remember which Grinnell professor it was. Anyway, best of luck. |
