>>>Some of the peak crowd believe the absence of new refineries (since the 1970s, I believe) is a sign oil companies don't expect to have more oil to refine. But existing refineries have been expanding, and improving their equipment -- but why not to process the sour stuff?
One problem of interpretation is assuming that the oil companies are acting sensibly with secret plans. That may be mere optimism. Maybe no one is planning anything just out of ignorance, incompetence and inertia, which usually explain more than conspiracy.<<
I agree with you that probably there is no conspiracy.
However, I do wonder if there is an inertia and fear delay in oil exploration and bringing the explored oil online. Remember that for the 1990's oil prices dropped below the prices in previous decades (adjusted for inflation). It is possible that oilers and adjacent industries are still scared of the possibility of the $10-20 oil to invest into infrastructure that would explore, extract and refine the $30-50 oil. They may be saying: "Yeah, oil is at $50 now, but what if it drops to $20 just as we get the infra built? Let's not build the infra then, let's just milk existing resources". You know the saying "once bitten twice shy" or something like that.
Once again, even if true, this does not avoid the peak. Even if companies will eventually explore, find and extract some $30-50 oil, the peak will occur. However, again, this may buy us time.
Jurgis the Fearful |
