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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 6.070

-1.5%

Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: Lazlo Pierce who wrote (3314)	1/18/2000 2:01:00 AM
From: Gus	of 34857

Is there any dispute about this number? CDMA ended 1999 with an installed base of 42 million subscribers (as of September 1999 per CDG), 24 million of which were in South Korea. South Korea is widely considered to be a saturated market for cellular phones. Interesting contrast from IC Insights: 1997 - 101 million handsets 1998 - 163 million handsets 1999 - 258 million handsets end of 1999 total (est) - 522 million handsets These numbers were taken from this press release: The world's leading handset supplier, Nokia Corp. (Espoo, Finland), is forecast to ship 81 million units or $14 billion worth of handsets in 1999. Those handsets will contain $3.3 billion worth of ICs, according to IC Insights' estimates eocenter.com Just one of many very persuasive posts by Darrell Smith over at the IDC thread on RB: Qcom has 3g properties. But to believe that Europe will transfer from the GSM platform the the CDMA2000 platform is very wrong. Asia's PDC and GSM platforms control 95% of all users there. Europes GSM platform controls 100% of the users there. Both Asia and Europe comprise 80% of all mobile users worldwide. Both Asia and Europe have committed both within ETSI (Europe) and ARIB (Asian) platforms but also IMT2000 to transfer their technologies wholesale to Wideband CDMA. There would need to be a heck of crink in the road (which currently doesn't exist) to stop this from happening. WCDMA is projected to be at least 30% to 50% less intial deployment costs than CDMA2000 (this does not take into consideration total long term user return on investment - but no professional currently sees how CDMA2000 can recoup the substantial and sizeable intial deployment costs that WCDMA will hold over it). let's get real. IDC could deploy their own BCDMA fixed wireless system for $550 to $650 per user NOW; this has already been demonostrated in tests and by word from IDC. CDMA2000 expected deployment costs will run anywhere from $1700 to $2200 per user (depending on services used). WCDMA deployment costs are expected to be higher than the fixed broadband CDMA, but no where near the CDMA2000 projected deployment costs per user. These CDMA2000 costs were presented by Samsung during the HongKong CDMA Congress 99 in May of 99. ragingbull.com Like many, I would be interested in reading a rebuttal that also touches on the issues of carrier ROI (2G AND 3G) and a real world profile of the demand for wireless data in different parts of the world with different teledensity and PC density. Lastly, here's Darrell's summary of Morgan Stanley's review of NOK: Nokia's comments backed up by analyst's summary: A. "The handset industry is growing faster than people realise. Nokia expects that global mobile subscribers will reach 1 billion by 2002..." B. "The replacement market will be a key driver for growth; Nokia says it will be 70%-80% of units sold over time..." C. "Nokia will probably be more dominant than many think..." D. "Size buys a whole range of advantages..." E. "Nokia is shaping the industry and driving internet mobility." F. "Handsets are as good as infrastructure. Higher revenue growth due to the rising replacement market...means that Nokia deserves a comparable valuation to the infrastructure players..." G. "Nokia raised it's revenue growth target in 2000 from 25-35% to 30-40%" H. "Accelerating penetration rates...Nokia now believes that penetration will accelerate between 20-30%...not just a Nordic phenomenon" I. "Ever increasing Gap...Nokia believes it can grow its share in all standards...particular targets are CDMA (where Nokia's US market share is running 20% currently) and Japan...Management suggested that Brazil had been...strong...until recently an Ericsson-dominated space. We think this has been driven by a strong pre paid uptake. Nokia's market leading position follows the release of its 5100 TDMA handset (there)." J. "...Nokia emphasized that marketing is only one third of the brand building process; the rest is about people & processes and products & services." K. "...Nokia believes that the world will not be PC-centric but mobile phone-centric, with internet enabled mobile phones exceeding internet connected PCs by 2003." Message 12594887

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