fleck tonight:
fleckensteincapital.com
I'm tempted to try to do something in the foreign-exchange market, because it seems to me that dollar bullishness has gotten lopsided. That said, my position in gold and silver is a pretty serious expression of that view (and yesterday, I bought some gold calls). I'm not sure if it's worth doing anything in currencies prior to the vote, however, as all major paper currencies are seriously flawed. It seems obvious to me that the euro ought to rally no matter what happens, at least for a trade, but the fact that it seems so obvious makes me nervous.
Meanwhile, one thing about the metals is clear: Silver continues to act far better than gold. In all likelihood, if it's time for the metals to rally, silver will dramatically outpace gold on the upside. Net-net, I continue to believe that one of these days, the Asian central banks -- which are choking on dollars, euros, and yen -- will realize that gold is a better alternative.
A Copper-Crude Interlude
While on my travels, I had a chance to spend time with an old friend, a knowledgeable commodities trader who runs a big "prop book" for a large organization. This friend, whose opinion I respect, is very bullish on both copper and oil. In view of the emails I've received from readers who really care about these ideas, I'd like to share his thoughts.
In his opinion, the fact that oil for delivery three years hence is trading around $50, and given the nature of the buyers who've been, in his words, "inhaling it," means it's unlikely that crude will go down in the short run in any meaningful way. He says the front end of the oil curve could get hit from time to time, but with serious demand that far out, he thinks oil is unlikely to witness material weakness from the price levels recently seen.
With respect to copper, he is very bullish. He thinks that copper could be set not just for a rally but for what commodity folks call an "event," or re-pricing. In his view, it's not at all inconceivable that over the next six months or so, if the right things happen, copper could move up some 40 cents. (I myself am not doing anything about those ideas at the moment, simply because I have enough on my plate already, but I thought they were definitely worth passing along.) |
