Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking Message Board

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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking

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From: redfish	9/5/2005 1:44:39 PM
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Invest.94L: Likely Tropical Threat for the U.S. Yesterday, Invest.94L was designated in the southwest Atlantic. Over the past 6 hours, it has tracked to the west-southwest (258°) to 25.3N 78.7W. Its current intensity rating is 1.0. Unfortunately, based on a combination of the model guidance and historic tropical climatology, this system has high probability of threatening U.S. landfall and will likely reach at least tropical storm strength at some point. Hurricane strength is possible. Most of the models take this system across Florida or Georgia. A few recurve it. However, the evolving synoptic situation tends to argue against recurvature for this system. In an extreme case, it could try to escape before being pulled back toward the United States ala Hurricane Dawn (1972). Given its current motion, I don't believe that scenario will play out. Historic climatology--going back to 1940 for a somewhat larger sample--reveals that 4/5 (80%) tropical cyclones that developed in the 23.3N-27.3N/76.7W-80.7W region eventually made U.S. landfall. There is some chance that this system could well track across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Both the BAMS and GFDL have a particularly disturbing track. For now, I believe: • Invest.94L will likely threaten U.S. landfall • Invest.94L should become a tropical storm at some point • Invest.94L could eventually attain hurricane strength • There is a chance that Invest.94L could move into the GOM and eventually threaten a portion of the Gulf Coast. storm2k.org Looks to me like a northern Florida/east coast heavy wind/rain story.

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