Obama's Up, Clinton's Down and Edwards Has Got Trouble
Sat Apr 14, 3:48 PM ET
The Nation -- Attention to the 2008 Democratic presidential race has been unduly, if predictably focused on the fund-raising component of the race. And, to the extent that reporters have had any time to consider what actual grassroots Democrats are thinking about the candidates, on the jockeying for position in the first caucus state of Iowa and the first primary state of New Hampshire.
But the most interesting news from the campaign trail at the moment is actually coming out of South Carolina, which is scheduled to hold a critical primary January 29. That's a week after New Hampshire votes and so South Carolina could be a definitional player in the process leading up to the "Super-Duper Tuesday" primaries of February 5, 2008.
Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, South Carolina is a state with a substantial African-American population. Additionally, its Democratic politics are defined by traditional Democratic constituencies: people who live in cities, public employees, dockworkers and, yes, people of color.
So who is ahead in South Carolina?
A new Insider Advantage survey, which was not conducted on behalf of any of the campaigns, gives Illinois Senator Barack Obama (news, bio, voting record) a substantial lead.
Obama's at 34 percent.
New York Senator Hillary Clinton has 20 percent.
Former North Carolina Senator, John Edwards is pulling 17 percent.
Delaware Senator Joe Biden's got 3 percent, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson's at 2 percent and Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd has 1 percent.
The numbers are great for Obama, who has only begun to establish his campaign in the state.
They are very bad news for Clinton, who has put enormous effort into South Carolina, going so far as to hire key political players in the African-American community in an attempt to thwart the Obama surge.
They are even worse news for Edwards, who needs to do well in South Carolina, a state where he won the 2004 Democratic primary, to maintain what credibility he may have as a Democrat who can win in the south. No serious observer of the race doubts that Edwards has done a better job than the other frontrunners of staking out coherent progressive stances on the issues. Clinton continues to try and make the mushy middle sound interesting.
Obama leans left -- indeed, his record on a number of issues, including the war, is one of getting things right when the others did not -- but his campaign so far has tended to be weak when it comes to specifics. His personal story and his rhetoric are his strengths, and that could be enough to bump Edwards aside.
The key word is could.
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