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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (33429)	2/4/2009 2:28:55 AM
From: Spekulatius	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 78717

RE HOG- the 15% interest shows that HOG is in far worse shape than you think. If HOGS BBB+ rating were real they would have to pay to the tune of 9% nowadays - the spreads for the better credits have sunk recently. HOG's 15% yield means that in the eyes of their creditors, HOG's is rated junk to the tune of BB or even less. Creditors still give it a 3B$ market cap at this point. I would consider HOG's common overvalued under these circumstances. Paul asked a while ago about RCL and it's debt. There is CWZ which is nothing but RCL debt in (Lehman) wrapper, trading currently for a 20%+ yield. I think RCL is toast too, I believe they have orders out for more cruise ships that are going to be paid next year. Wish them good luck, they will need it. I don't think I would even touch RCL's debt (CWZ) much less so the common.

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