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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (33424)	5/28/2005 9:13:53 AM
From: russwinter	of 110194

<It is amazing how many speeches the FED has given recently referencing the housing bubble.> Yet, what do they do in the real, non Ministry of Truth Newspeak orwelltoday.com world: six coupon passes starting with the day of the Kohn speech. FCBs come in and purchase $21 billion in agency issues, starting with the Kohn speech. Despite two more rate hikes since early April, a lid has been put on commonly used ARM indexes such as the Libor () and 1 year CMT. Watch their actions, not their words. That's always been the problem with this Fed, they refuse to dole out discipline despite now supposedly finding late in the day religion about the Bubbles they create. It's the opposite of Teddy Roosevelt's "Speak softly and carry a big stick". Alan Greenspan is "Speak unintelligibly and carry a small stick". () One year Libor: March, 2005 3.84 April, 2005 3.71 May, 2005: set at month's end, would appear to be about 3.78 libor-loans.com The Fed funds market is now looking for two pauses in the next four meetings. trendmacro.com From the way I look at COTs on the Eurodollar, there may be three pauses. The commercials still have large long bets on the ED, but are basically flat everything else. So the masterplan appears to be to restore the yield curve slope IMO. That will do nothing to stop the egregious ARMs, HELOC and IO lending practices. Here's the knock your socks off chart of the year: idorfman.com

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