I think it should be noted that the market is capable of selling off in the face of good news as well as rising after bad news. That being said INTC's mid quarter update could very well be one of the catalyst's that the press points to when the market rallies back higher.
The market could also rise even if INTC does not give us anything positive in the way of upside surprises. I think the volume is too light today to indicate we have seen a short term bottom just yet.
I agree that MAX Pain is very useful. We are oversold enough now to rally but the low volume suggests we push lower still before the rally.
More from Briefing.com: 2:58PM Nasdaq +1.4 edges into positive territory : Software group (+2%) provides leadership, with Veritas (VRTS +7.4%), PSFT (+7.4%) and SEBL (+6.1%) participating. Red Hat (RHAT +10.5%) a mover of note.
2:33PM Market Volume : Total volume traded is on the lighter side again though this marks the strongest volume of the week. The Nasdaq has just cleared the 1.1 billion share mark and is on pace to exceed 1.5 billion for the day. NYSE volume is also somewhat light with 864 million total shares traded to this point in the session.
2:20PM Applied Materials Intraday (AMAT) 22.09 -1.01: -- Technical -- Earlier highlighted semi equipment stocks (NVLS and KLAC) as they approached their 200 day sma. While both have edged below,AMAT has thus far been able to hold above a similar level and the May low at 21.74/21.65. Oversold posture allows for some upticks with the first step to improving the very short term bias sustained gains above 22.20. Next resistances are at 22.60/22.80 with the top of today's gap at 23.08. Failure leaves the door open to a breakout with next supports at 21 and 20.70.
1:47PM Altera: new Stratix product may see rapid ramp-- Pru (ALTR) 17.96 -0.20: Prudential says their impression is that ALTR's new Stratix product is gaining more design-win momentum than firm had expected, and if this continues it should translate into a rapid ramp for this product over the next several quarters; also, software support feedback for Stratix is quite good, unlike several years ago with Apex, which led to market share losses. Reiterates Buy rating and $28 price target.
1:31PM Market Action : Equities extending declines as India/Pakistan concerns persist and FBI warning of al Qaeda threat to commercial airlines further roil markets. According to CNN, the FBI is alerting law enforcement agencies of potential threat against airliners after investigators concluded that al Qaeda operatives might have tried to shoot down a U.S. military plane in Saudi Arabia earlier this month. The FBI has no specific intelligence that al Qaeda is planning an attack using shoulder-fired missiles.
1:27PM Nasdaq Composite Intraday : -- Technical -- Index has failed to hold intraday support at 1620/1625 and edged back towards its worst levels of the session. Look for initial support at 1600 followed by a modest support point at 1590 and a more significant floor at the May 7th closing low of 1573. The very near-term tone improves if the index can reclaim territory above what is now initial resistance at 1620/1625.
12:23PM Novellus Intraday (NVLS) 42.11 -1.29: -- Update -- -- Technical -- Stock breaking down to a new three-month low after failing to hold its 200-day simple moving average just under 42.50. Look for initial support at 41.60 followed by an additional floor at 41.00. Note that the intraday tone would improve if the stock could clear very near-term resistance at 42.40.
12:12PM Teradyne Intraday (TER) 26.82 -1.01: -- Technical -- Issue has stabilized over the last several sessions following last week's sprint to support near 26.7 (62% retrace of Sep/Apr rally). However, action today has been disappointing and without a sustained recovery back through the 27.10/27.20 area it will remain vulnerable to a retest/breach of the retracement and the recent low (26.49) over the near term. If this develops, the next support of interest is in the 26.10/26 area followed by 25.50.
12:10PM Nokia estimates cut, MOT numbers raised at USB (NOK) 13.39 -0.36: --Update-- In morning note, USB Piper Jaffray says a recent visit to Asia and talks with supplierslead firm to conclude that NOK may be missing an important upgrade cycle for CDMA 1x handsets; says major competitors are showing more innovative lineups, and may take share from Nokia on the CDMA front in 2002/2003. To reflect handset competition, firm reduces FY02 to $0.69 from $0.71 and FY03 to $0.79 from $0.83. Price target cut to $18 from $28. Conversely, firm raising MOT est for FY02 to $0.00 from ($0.08) after channel checks confirm firm's view that MOT is profitably gaining share.
9:35AM Sector Watch: Semiconductor : -- Technical -- Group on the defensive in early trade with two semi equipment stocks vacillating near important support levels. NVLS is now testing support at its May low and its 200 day sma at 42.65/42.50. Yesterday KLAC inched below its 200 day sma (52.8) and is eyeing its May low at 51.6. Failure to stabilize above this levels short leaves them open to follow through selling.
11:23AM Genesis Microchip (GNSS) 17.86 -5.50: It was not long ago that this maker of chips for flat-panel displays was the toast of the town. It has since been run out of town. The stock traded as high as $74.90 as recently as January. Its 23% decline today sends it to a new 52-week low as it's now 76% off its 52-wk high. Today's sell-off is a result of the company's presentation to analysts wherein the CFO said the company may face heavier than expected pricing pressure and the possible loss of market share based on data from market research firm DisplaySearch. The company did not officially guide down from the estimates it gave in April, but it seems to be a given that a Q1 (Jun) warning is imminent. The company has seen an increase in consumer prices for flat-panel monitors and a move by computer makers to offer bundled packages with traditional monitors rather than flat-panels as they had in the past....It looks to be a rough near term outlook for Genesis as the problems mentioned above show little likelihood of changing soon. Perhaps the next catalyst for GNSS will come in Q2 (Sep) as next-generation 5G TFT-LCD capacity begins to ramp. It'll likely be in Q3 (Dec) before capacity materializes in a meaningful way. As such, we would not be aggressively bottom fishing here until the demand picture improves. The plunge in GNSS highlights a point we make often here at Briefing.com: when companies trade lower on good news, that's a bad sign. Briefing.com cautioned about Genesis in January when that happened. It was then a high multiple stock, blew away estimates and guided higher but investors shrugged. That's a good sign it's time to take some profits. -- Robert J. Reid, Briefing.com
10:08AM Technical Levels : When we last reviewed the Nasdaq, we were watching for whether the index could hold support in the area of 1637/1652. That area had bracketed a 62% retracement of the prior leg higher as well as the bottom of a gap created on May 14th. Well anyone who has watched the markets over the past two years shouldn't be too surprised at the outcome -- the index failed to hold with yesterday's close at 1624. In each of the prior three sessions, the index has moved lower on notably light volume. In fact, Friday and Tuesday marked the two lightest volume days of the year. This is worth keeping in mind as it continues to contrast with the prior leg higher -- the rally came behind the two heaviest volume sessions in the past three months. Yet while the volume dynamics are interesting, we continue to see nothing from a strictly technical perspective to signal a near-term bottom. In terms of straight levels, look for very modest downside support at 1611 followed by a more significant floor at 1600. If those two fail to hold, it's time to start looking towards the May 7th closing low at 1573 as the next real level of interest. To the upside, watch for initial potentially notable resistance in the broad range of 1637/1652 followed by additional overhead at 1673. In the attached table, we touch on several individual issues in addition to key levels on which traders will focus. -- Mike Ashbaugh, Briefing.com
finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+^IXIC+QQQ+^VIX&d=t
Boy those software stocks look pretty good. Anyway I think we are pretty much on the same page. Anyone reading this think a short term bottom has already been found for the SOX?
Thanks, RtS |
