Progress Report on my "1998 Outlook," as posted on 1/1/98.
So far this year, all of my 6 predictions have been on the mark, except for Checkpoint having only a small gain. I will be updating my 1998 Outlook shortly. Here's the YTD data compared to my 1/1/98 statements:
>1. Electric Utilities will be hot (on a risk/reward basis), with total returns of 20-35%.<
The Telescan Electric Utilities Index (.UOP) on January 1st was 86.15; today it's at 89.87. YTD gain = 4.3% , annualized gain = 28.9%.
>2. Internet stocks will be one of the hottest sectors of 1998.<
ISDEX internet stock index on January 1st was 99.87, now at 130.22. YTD gain = 30.4%, annualized gain = 491%.
>3. The Nikkei, surprising almost everyone, will surge to 20,000.<
Nikkei on January 1st was 15,280; now at 16,832. YTD gain = 10.2%; annualized gain = 78.6%, and annualized year-end close of 27,300.
>4. Secondary stocks will have a very good 1st quarter.<
The NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have obviously surged after a weak December and early January.
>5. The Dow will reach 10,000.<
The Dow is up YTD 6.8% from 7950 to 8490; annualized close would be 11,800. 10,000 appears possible.
>6. My favorite company for 1998 is Checkpoint Software (CHKPF).<
After closing 1997 at around 40 3/4, Checkpoint plunged to around 30 1/2 after a wicked downgrade, but has recovered strongly to 41 5/8 now. Virtual Private Networks are still a hot growth area, and Checkpoint's firewall market share still leads the pack by a wide margin.
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Sources:
My 1998 Outlook, as posted on 1/1/98:
Message 3071452
Graph of Electric Utilities Index .UOP:
tscn.com
Internet Stock Index price and stock components: fast.quote.com
January 1 price: internetnews.com
Nikkei graph
tscn.com
Russell 2000 graph tscn.com
NASDAQ graph tscn.com
Dow graph tscn.com
CHKPF graph tscn.com
Philip
Disclaimer: Invest at your own risk. Information not guaranteed to be accurate. Information presented for discussion purposes only and not to be construed as investment advice. |
