Ascend Communications (ASND) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)

ASND 217.38

-1.0%

Feb 5 3:59 PM EST

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To: Tom Hays who wrote (3368)	6/4/1997 2:29:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	of 61433

Tom, after all the yo yo-ing this stock had done recently I can well understand your cynicism about management and its motives (and I can't say I entirely disagree with you). But to the issue of valuation, here I must disagree with you, because your method works only half as well as a stopped clock. Consider this for a moment: your valuation method works properly on Jan 1, 1997 and gives us a value of $x/share. But that method would produce exactly the same value during the remaining 364 days of the year. Using a rolling time horizon gives a much better picture of the possible value of the company. The biggest hip-shot of them all is earnings expectations. There are simply so many events, both internal and external, that impinge on earnings that I think it is almost absurd to publish forecasts. Perhaps if we had some statistical basis on which to judge the past accuracy of the forecaster (Sound View Financial, for example) we could make better guesses. At least Value Line assigns a figure (albeit a useless one for quantitative analysis) to their estimates (I believe they call it earnings predictability). Regards, Paul

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