Re <<Agouron expects ....>>
The source was PW notes from 12/18/97: Agouron: Strong Growth in Monthly Scrip Trends.
<<Interestingly, Vertex will also be reporting on their Phase III's at the Feb 1-5 meeting. Should be a volatile week for the stocks.>>
Hope we don't get a repeat of what happened at ICAAC.
VIRACEPT PRESCRIPTIONS
4/97 5/97 6/97 7/97 8/97 9/97 10/97 11/97
Total (TR 2437 20005 24601 32,002 34479 37488 40830 40013
New (NRX)10636 12388 12353 14286 14217 15116 16099 15455
Refills (RRX)1801 7617 12249 17716 20262 22372 24731 24558
M/M Undadj
Change, TRX 369.5% 60.9% 23% 30.1% 7.7% 8.7% 8.9% -2.0%
Adjustment factor 0.3% 1.5% 0.5% -2.8% +1.4% +1.9% -6.3% +10.9%
M/M adj. Ch. 369.2% 62.4% 2 3.5% 27.3% 9.1% 10.6% 2.6% 8.9%
PROTEASE INHIBITOR MARKET-TOTAL SCRIPS (UNADJUSTED,
IN ABSOLUTE NUMBER)
VIRACEPT 12437 20,005 24601 32002 34479 37488 40830 40013
CRIXIVAN 71000 63000 58000 61000 56000 55000 60000 55000
INVIRASE 25639 27008 25692 27188 26747 26443 26865 24715
NORVIR 14740 15011 13829 14998 15321 15500 17233 16543
TOTAL
123816 125024 122122 135188 132547 134431 144928 137271
NOTE: To appropriately compare monthly trends in IMS prescription data, an adjustment factor must be applied to the monthly growth rates in order to account for differences in the number of relevant days in each month. For example, November contains 3 less days for scrips relative to October. Consequently, an adjustment factor of 10.9% is applied to the monthly growth rate to account for this differences. The differences were minimal before.
PROTEASE INHIBITOR MARKET MONTH-OVER-MONTH ADJUSTED GROWTH RATES (TRX - PERCENTAGE %)
4/97 5/97 6/97 7/97 8/97 9/97 10/97 11/97
VIRACEPT 369.2 62.4 23.5 27.3 9.1 10.6 2.6 8.9
CRIXIVAN 12.4 -9.8 -7.4 2.4 6.8 .1 2.8 2.6
INVIRASE -2 6.8 -4.4 3.0 -0.2 0.8 -4.7 2.9
NORVIR 0.9 3.3 -7.4 5.7 3.6 3.1 4.9 6.9
FORTOVASE N/A
TOTAL 15.9 2.5 -1.8 7.9 -6 3.3 1.5 5.6
Sorry, the numbers don't stay in the columns, and parts are erased, but I don't have time to fix it.
FYI: Thestreet.com (Jesse Eisenger) had an article about Vertex today, mentioning how Cowan analyst David Stone called Vertex a "screaming" buy at 26, a week ago. The price has risen as word spreads on the 10 abstracts to be presented at the February meeting on Retroviruses. Eisenger mentions the abstract discussed here previously, 16 week data, showing 39/40 had levels below 500, but so what, so do Merck and Agouron etc. |
