Glen,
I normally stick to my technicals. Subjectively, I agree with you that the selling was overdone.
Unfortunately, the NAZ is just starting to come down which will pull the DOW down more and combined will pressure all the other indexes down.
Whether the OSX can with-stand all the down pressure from the overall market, in-light of itself being the weakest index in the market, it will need major news to revert at this moment. I prefer not to play the impact of news.
Technically, the OSX is just in the mid-range and can fall more. I realise that I had previously indicated that the 105 support should hold, but it was obvious that the news today on the earnings was interpreted extremely bad, whether justifiable or not. As I always said, fundamentals/news over-ride technicals.
From a few days ago the OSX was the strongest index, and now the weakest on a technical basis. That is what news can do. Per my GUITAR, I actually have been able to quantify index strength into finite numbers. So when I say weakest, it is only as subjective as the data my GUITAR calculations are based on. Not to sound overly pessimistic, there could be news to totally change the direction over-riding the technicals again. Again, I do not play the news - I just try and find something else.
I am now loaded in PUTS technicals are indicating some more pullback. This pullback should not be as strong as the previous one, but if I had to guess, reversal back upwards for the overall market should occur in 3-4 days, but could be as soon as Monday. Its too early to tell now with confidence.
How the OSX will stand up to the downward pressure of the overall market - I just dont know on a subjective basis.
Wish I could be more optimistic.
Again, I do agree with you that it was overdone, and I will be buying stock for one of my trading partners, in either GLM or Rowen.
Seeya |
