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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 210.24-1.9%10:48 AM EST

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To: kash johal who wrote (33926)3/28/2001 1:20:46 PM
From: Joe NYCRead Replies (3) of 275872
 
Kash,

Intels comes to bat next with its 0.13 micron. Lets see if they can home run, hit, bunt or strike out again.

I think it is clear that there is going to be an improvement in clock speed. The sweet spot of the .18u will move from about 1.4 GHz in the past to 1.7 - 1.8 GHz by the end of the year, and .13u sweet spot will probably be at or above 2 GHz.

I think Intel really has to move the entire desktop / server lines to P4 to remain competitive. Duron will soon be at 1 GHz for $100. The .18u Piii line is doomed. Tualatin may be fine for the notebook market, but I don't see Intel using the most desirable process technology, which initially will be in low supply for the low end market.

Since the capacity on .13u will be limited, Intel will have to manufacture a lot of P4 on .18u Al process in Q3, Q4 and Q1 2001 to remain clock speed competitive, but the .18u parts have been duds, as you call them.

I think AMD will have a very good environment for selling their CPU product for the next 2 to 3 quarters, before we face another round of Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt.

Joe
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