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Biotech / Medical : GUMM - Eliminate the Common Cold

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To: Mad2 who wrote (3398)12/3/2000 11:49:19 PM
From: Mike M   of 5582
 
Actually his analysis makes more sense than your series of one liners.

Why not use this forum for what it was intended? This is an opportunity to consider various opinions and then everyone gets to come to their own conclusions. If you don't agree with Dan's comments then offer your rebuttal in a reasoned way which adds value rather than impugning someone who tries awfully hard to understand as much as he possibly can about this company. Just because we don't have to use our names or look each other in the eye doesn't mean we shouldn't be civil.

Nobody has a corner on the facts regarding this company or its prospects. Dan's optimism has been balanced by an abundance of pessimism on the thread. This company's business plan has evolved and it has even changed its SIC code. They have made plenty of mistakes along the way. They only have one bona fide quarter of profits in the last five years. But, chances are things will change. Their relationship with P&G and SWMAY proves they offer value to large companies. Both have paid serious money to GUMM for their research. It no longer takes a tremendous leap of faith to believe that they will eventually turn the gum side profitable when product ships. OK, there is still the possibility that these things won't happen but, at this stage, it is no harder to believe that it will happen...

Zicam's marketing success remains problematic. It would appear to be selling well but it remains to be seen how profitable. I am encouraged by the fact they are advertising well without incurring debt. This is important for a company trying to go it alone and living from hand to mouth. The product is potentially too big for GUMM and may well require a marketing partner. I think they have to deal with the QGLY lawsuit before that happens. They will also need to determine preventative clinical to help figure out what Zicam might be worth.

External factors have made it tough on GUMM lately. The market sucks and a lack of sponsorship makes this stock vulnerable to those who want to manipulate. Alas, the share price will go where it goes in the short term. A P&G launch would go a long way to get things turned around. So would shipment of jv nicotine products. So would a big Zicam quarter. We may be very close. Time will tell.
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