>>Why is it that you feel that WIND will get to ride on the back of the MCU
growth rates, while MWAR may not be able to?
A rising tide may lift all boats, but emerging technical sectors do not always adhere to this simple analogy. Read back over some of the older posts about the likely development of the Embedded Systems competitive market place, noting all the attention given to the notion of winner-take-all. Read also the recent posts showing user survey results, and Michael Greene's Post #338. Finally, re-read my assesment of MWAR's quarterly results.
It appears certain that WIND, and arguably INTS, are best-positioned to dominate the generic RTOS market place. MWAR seems to be conceding the generic market, with plans to focus in DigitalTV, Wireless Communications and Network Appliances. Whether the decision to focus was made as a practical reality, or to chase after more exciting opportunities, the result is that MWAR cannot be expected to grow directly with the market.
MWAR will succeed if its strong efforts in the three niche markets begin to pay off handsomely in terms of run-time license fees. The amount of additional product license fees, as opposed to run-time license fees, they can hope to garner from these niches is probably limited. Another aspect of MWAR's focusing on niche markets is that they are developing application-specific libraries to aid developers quickly bring products to market. Adding value in this fashion means that MWAR should be able to negotiate higher run-time license fees than otherwise possible. They are aiming at 2% of product cost. Consequently, it may be possible to hit the jackpot with relatively small production volumes.
The extreme model of MWAR's current thrust is Geoworks. Merely by having the Geos OS in HP's OmniGO and a neat Nokia smart wireless phone/computer, with other exciting implementations expected, the stock accelerated in value. How could this be? It only makes sense if the unit run-time license fee were much higher than typical of a usual RTOS implementation. This could be warranted in the case of Geos, since the OS provides complete end-user functionality, uniquely necessary to make the product, and is so visible to the end-user.
I found it surprising in Michaels post about the AEA Monterey Classic that INTS has locked up Philips worldwide. As I recall, MWAR worked with Philips for years on iCD, and indeed quite a few of Philips iCD players have shipped. Why didn't MWAR rope Philips? Perhaps this is simply another confirmation of MWAR's niche market focus.
Allen |
