Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking Message Board

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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking

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To: redfish who started this subject	9/6/2004 12:46:32 AM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (1) of 26053

Ivan now upgraded to Category 4. HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGEST THAT IVAN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 115 KT. CONVECTION IS REMARKABLY STRONG IN THE CORE REGION WITH PEAK CLOUD TOPS APPROACHING -80 DEG C. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS WNW...285/18. ALL FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST A SIMILAR TRACK FOR IVAN OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE, BRINGING IVAN INTO THE VICINITY OF BARBADOS IN 36 HOURS. FOR THE 120 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD A STRONG CONSENSUS REMAINS IN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...ONLY THE GFS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND MOVES IVAN FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. AFTER 72 HOURS THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IVAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING IVAN UP TO 125 KT AT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY INDEX SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL CONTINUE AS THE PROBABILITY FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NEARLY NINE TIMES THE SAMPLE MEAN. GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND AND THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...IVAN IS FORECAST TO REACH 130 KT IN 12 HOURS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY AFTER THAT TIME. FORECASTER JARVINEN/HENNON nhc.noaa.gov

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