AJ Strata agrees: MA Special Election Won’t Even Be Close
Published by AJStrata under 2010 Elections, All General Discussions
Major Update: Jim Geraghty’s “number cruncher” confirms my analysis using an independent methodology and concludes:
So the question remains what about the whole “special election dynamic” I believe it favors Brown, although, I think there will be some watering down of this advantage. What we are seeing is BROWN winning this race hands down.
On Tuesday, voters should not be discouraged if they here about higher turnout than expected, because that turnout is for Brown. Unless something changes in the next 4 days, this might not even be close.
Emphasis mine. Two distinctly different methods showing the same answer usual means the answer is spot on. - end update.
Looks like that political tsunami rising from the American electorate in response to foolish liberal failures on the economy, health care and national security (they did let two terrorists get through our defenses, probably due to changes in the sensitivity of our reactions to leads) is a lot bigger than anyone could possibly imagine. Yesterday I predicted a Scott Brown win (see here and here).
Today I predict a Scott Brown Landslide – in line with this late breaking PJM poll:
A new poll taken Thursday evening for Pajamas Media by CrossTarget – an Alexandria VA survey research firm – shows Scott Brown, a Republican, leading Martha Coakley, a Democrat, by 15.4% in Tuesday’s special election for the open Massachusetts US Senate seat. The poll of 946 likely voters was conducted by telephone using interactive voice technology (IVR) and has a margin of error of +/- 3.19%.
The poll shows Brown leading 54 -39. It makes sense given the party affiliation numbers I noted yesterday. While it is true Dems outnumber Reps 3 to 1 (37%-13%) in Massachusetts, it is also true Independents equal both combined (49%). Since Brown is winning big with Indies and Reps it means he is winning big with 62% of the electorate and only losing with 37%.
Mathematically Coakley just cannot win.
Some back of the envelope calculations show if Coakley wins 90% of Dems (being generous here) she gets 33.3% of the vote (assuming equal turnout in all groups). If she get 15% of the R & I (again being generous here) she gets an additional 9.3% for a total of 42.6%. I think Coakley would be lucky to get 45% all things being equal.
But all things are not equal – the R’s and I’s are energized and coming out in droves. The Dems are jumping ship or staying home. We could see Coakley stuck very close to 40% – which would be a landslide.
The Dems screwed up, they know they screwed up and they know they lost the Independents. So why go out and try and save Reid and Pelosi? The only question now is will the far left (especially in DC) wake up or continue to hide their eyes and pretend it all is not happening.
Update: Ed Morrissey has some good points on turn out models and party affiliation. |
