WPR Article | World Citizen: Iran and Israel Already at (Cold) War
JERUSALEM -- At about 5 p.m. on Jan. 14, a loud blast rang out along the Jordanian road that leads to the main bridge connecting the Hashemite kingdom with its neighbor, Israel. The target of the remote-controlled explosion was a two-car convoy carrying Israeli diplomats posted to Jordan, traveling back to Israel for the weekend. The assassination attempt failed, but it triggered a number of investigations as well as rampant speculation on both sides of the Jordanian-Israeli border. Differing theories point to various possible extremist perpetrators. The most intriguing reports, however, quote insiders in Jordan's security services who claim that the Islamic Republic of Iran ordered the assassination attempt on the Israeli diplomats.
The attack is a stark reminder that, while the international community ponders diplomatic formulas and economic sanctions as a way to stop Iran's nuclear program without going to war, Israel and Iran are already at war. For now, it is mostly a cold war -- with flashes of extreme heat.
Even if the investigation into the attack in Jordan ultimately clears Tehran, there is a reason why the names of Iran and Israel almost always come up whenever violence surfaces in the region. All the players in the Middle East know that Israel and the Islamic regime that rules Iran are sworn enemies. And they know that violence in the Middle East very often has connections to the conflict between those two countries. Israel's two most-recent wars were fought against militant organizations with close links to Iran. To some extent, the 2006 war against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the late-2008 war against Hamas in Gaza were proxy wars between Iran and Israel.
In both cases, Israel fought against militias armed and financed by Iran. Although Hamas and Hezbollah are very different groups, they both enjoy strong backing from Iran, as well as encouragement in their view that, ultimately, the only acceptable solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict is the elimination of Israel.
According to anonymous sources at Jordan's General Intelligence Department, the Jan. 14 attack was ordered by Iranian agents seeking revenge for the assassination of Iranian physicist Massoud Ali Mohammadi, killed on a Tehran street last week. When Mohammadi was killed, Iranian sources promptly blamed "the Zionist regime" and the United States. The country's interior minister vowed that Iran would seek revenge.
Iran has engaged in violent attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets beyond its borders for years, including the attack against a Jewish center in Buenos Aires that killed 85 people in 1994. Argentina has issued international arrest warrants for the men indicted in the attack, including Ahmed Vahidi, who now serves as minister of defense in Tehran.
Iran, of course, did not need any new justification for attacking Israeli targets. And outside observers cast doubt on the regime's official theory of the physicist's killing. They point to Mohammadi's support for the pro-democracy opposition in Iran, saying it was regime supporters who likely killed the physicist in order to send a warning to the opposition. After all, Mohammadi's name figures on a list of 400 Iranian scientists supporting opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi. Since Mohammadi's work was not related to the nuclear weapons program, he would not have been an obvious target for Israel.
Some in the exiled opposition believe the assassination was the handiwork of Hezbollah agents, who operate inside Iran in support of the Iranian regime that, after all, created the Shiite militia in Lebanon.
Whether or not Israel had anything to do with the latest assassination in Iran, the regime in Tehran has reason to worry about Israeli actions. Israel has stood at the forefront of international efforts to put a stop to Iran's nuclear program, which Israel, like much of the world, is convinced aims to build nuclear weapons. Just this week, the governments of Germany and Israel held an unprecedented joint cabinet session as a sign of friendship between the two nations, with the need to stop Iran's nuclear program reaffirmed by both governments as a key priority.
Iran has used its anti-Israel policies as a means to gain popular support and extend its influence in the Middle East. The rhetoric has likely strengthened support for Tehran among the masses, but it has done little to ease fears among Arab governments about Iran's goal of becoming the dominant power in the Muslim world.
Already, Iran has sparked the ire of many Arab governments for fomenting unrest among Shiite minorities. When Hezbollah tried to launch attacks against Israeli targets from Egyptian soil, Cairo reacted angrily. The Egyptian government has fulminated against Iran and its allies in the past, accusing it of creating instability throughout the Middle East.
In a troubling sign for Iran, a recent article in the semi-official Al-Ahram newspaper in Egypt praised Israel for its success in slowing Iran's progress towards nuclear weapons. The article spoke admiringly of Meir Dagan, the head of Israel's intelligence agency, Mossad, calling him "Israel's Superman." According to Al-Ahram, if it weren't for Dagan's quiet, behind-the-scenes efforts, Iran would have long ago acquired nuclear weapons.
If, in fact, it turns out that Iran was behind the assassination attempt on the Israeli diplomats in Jordan, it could create new problems for Tehran among its nervous Arab neighbors. Jordan's king has long warned about the dangers of Iran's regional rise and will not take kindly to Iran launching attacks on Jordanian soil.
It would also confirm that what remains a mostly Cold War between Iran and Israel could very well continue to heat up.
Frida Ghitis is an independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor. Her weekly column, World Citizen, appears every Thursday. |
