The grandfathering-yourself-in strategy on nukes
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
SCOPE: "India's Bombshell," by David P. Fidler and Sumit Ganuly, Newsweek, 14 December 2009. BRIEFING: "Nuclear proliferation: An Iranian nuclear bomb, or the bombing of Iran? After years of fruitless diplomacy, Iran is on the threshold of becoming a nuclear power. The options are grim," The Economist, 5 December 2009.
India now signaling it's willing to join Non-Proliferation Treaty as a nuclear state. One would naturally expect Iran to ultimately try the same, taking their cues, as they often do, from the Indians. Iran now threatens to pull out of the NPT completely. But once secured, as it were, in the same manner as Israel, I would expect them to come back. Meanwhile, I don't know why the Israelis don't admit their nuclear status and pull an India also. I know, I know. We'll see "40 or so nuclear powers overnight!" Been hearing that BS for four decades. Meanwhile, North Korea and Iran will make only #9 and #10. I could easily see the Saudis and Turkey round it up to an even dozen, but honestly, who else? Maybe Egypt, just to seem relevant to the ensuing strategic talks in the Gulf, but I'm stretched to find others that would matter. So worst case, we're looking at a baker's dozen after seven decades, up from six through the first three and a half decades. Not exactly exponential growth. But better to freak out incessantly and make WMD the entire core of our grand strategic approach to the world. Cause that will so get us what we want in coming years--NOT thomaspmbarnett.com |
