Noticed an error in ads rev... Corrected analysis(?) below....
TCI
All units in M unless stated Yr '98 Yr '99 Yr '00 Yr '01 Yr '02 Yr '03 Yr '04 Yr '05
Subscriber Base 8 13.86 21.09 29.95 40.41 52.49 66.19 81.50
Subscr. Rev. 2,161.00 3,650.08 5,556.10 7,887.53 10,644.35 13,826.58 17,434.20 21,467.23
Ads, Commerce 439.00 602.66 771.16 939.66 1,108.16 1,276.66 1,445.15 1,613.65
Totals 2,600.00 4,252.74 6,327.26 8,827.19 11,752.51 15,103.23 18,879.36 23,080.88
Rev. Growth 54.30% 63.57% 48.78% 39.51% 33.14% 28.51% 25.00% 22.25%
CASE A :
Net Costs (90% of Rev):
Net Income $92.00 $425.27 $632.73 $882.72 $1,175.25 $1,510.32 $1,887.94 $2,308.09
Income Growth 362.25% 48.78% 39.51% 33.14% 28.51% 25.00% 22.25%
EPS $0.10 $0.46 $0.68 $0.95 $1.26 $1.62 $2.02 $2.47
Diluted Shares 934 934 934 934 934 934 934 934
Price($) (PE=40) $3.94 $18.21 $27.10 $37.80 $50.33 $64.68 $80.85 $98.85
CASE B:
Costs & Exp. :
Cost of Sales (parabolic) 1678.00 2466.00 3437.99 4593.99 5933.99 7457.99 9165.99 11057.98
Marketing (Fixed) 400.00 800.00 800.00 800.00 800.00 800.00 800.00 800.00
R&D(Fixed) 100.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00
SG&A(parabolic) 230.00 382.00 583.00 832.99 1131.99 1479.99 1876.99 2322.99
MISC(20% SG&A) 121.00 76.40 116.60 166.60 226.40 296.00 375.40 464.60
Total 2529.00 3924.39 5137.59 6593.59 8292.38 10233.98 12418.37 14845.57
Net Income 71.00 328.35 1,189.67 2,233.60 3,460.13 4,869.26 6,460.98 8,235.31
Income Growth 362.44% 262.32% 87.75% 54.91% 40.72% 32.69% 27.46%
EPS 0.08 0.35 1.27 2.39 3.70 5.21 6.92 8.82
Diluted Shares 934 934 934 934 934 934 934 934
Price($) (PE=40) 3.04 14.06 50.95 95.66 148.19 208.53 276.70 352.69
Price($) (PE=80) 6.08 28.12 101.90 191.31 296.37 417.07 553.40 705.38 |
