Hi Barry: She has been tougher to get position on in the last two
weeks than any since I played her, I went from using just out of the
money puts, to in the money puts..and have played them very tight
having to double up and duck out with very thin margins twice.
The reason I duck out quick after I double up, is I'v got more on
the table than I originaly intented to bet..and well she has fooled
so let me duck and re-bid. Only once did I duckout with a small
loss..but none of the winners were much. So far I'm ahead on her
but most of that comes from some time back, and does not include
what I have on the table for Jan98..I'v reached my limit with that
bet, the next if she makes 65 will be out even more to Jan99..
These short term puts are not doing near as good as they were
back in FEB, MAR, and early APRL..some of that I'm sure has to
do with the market upturn since APRL..it really has gone up..
and is continue ing to trend up and is bound to have lifted this
boat some to..I'v noticed on some other puts the same trend..
I'm concluding that short term..It's not wise to buck the market
trend even if you feel you have a handle on a stock, if the market
changes the handle may not work so good..that seems to be the case
with AOL..as well as a few other dogs, that I have not been as
lucky with as I have AOL. I guess about early last week I started
seeing that AOL was fooling me more than in the past, and I tightened
up a lot, and closed out Friday just barley ahead.
She has not been one you can just assume will fall..as she is in
an uptrend..her profit taking range was what I was playing, but
with the market going up thast seems to have changed.
I'll watch her more if market comes down, for the time being my
attention has switch a lot to NXTL..I'v not mde any moves yet with
her, and if I do they will likely be bullish..with a tend to get
some calls..leaps out in 99..that if she does start to get a
roller coster pattern later then I may short aginst the calls.
At no time have I had the nerve to short with out calls to cover.
And BTW twice with AOL I'v played calls, and done ok., but missed
out getting in on her last low.
Jim
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