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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs
SPY 684.84+0.6%Dec 22 4:00 PM EST
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To: Clint E. who wrote (34622)10/3/2001 8:16:56 PM
From: Johnny Canuck   of 69177
 
I am still not as bullish as Suresh. A test of 1100 on the COMPX can still in the cards in the next 12 months. I don't expect that this move is more than an intermediate term rally like in April at this point.

Based on the TLAB guidance of no recovery till Q4 2002 and the fact that a new PC upgrade cycle may begin in 2002 since the last upgrade was in 1999 (Y2K), 2002 might be a turn around year. 12 months is a long time and the fact that the market gets a major correction every 18 months on averae any thing can happen.

The FED is pumping a lot of liquidity into the system, but a lot of people I would expect are under water in the markets in a big way too. Till the traders on the street get better control of their debt the upside is limited.

Amazing enough my broker was telling me some of his clients were getting margin calls on mutual fund they had bought. The funds it seems did not used hard stop loss and got caught in the down draft. That is pretty scary for professionals and indicates there may be less money than people think in the hand of the funds.

I am actually not as bearish as I sound. I am just just trying to built the worst case scenario to balance my own bullish tendencies.
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