Mark - Re: Intel Dominance -
It's always wise to be on the lookout for the "Next Big Thing" that may knock Intel into the history books.
Regarding IBM - "IBM would totally dominate our industry ..."
Let us not forget - IBM once had 100% MARKET share of the PC compatible market. They invented and OWNED it. IBM ceded dominance by virtue of mismanagment and misreading the market. Technically, they were (are) very strong, but their culture does not permit them to get down and dirty with the rest of the PC industry. They view the computing world as one of the "old boys club", a group that they knew how to coddle, communicate, and control. No more.
Intel, on the other hand, grew up in the modern age of desktop computing (as did Microsoft) and knows the game quite well. They are involved with ISV and IHV (hardware vendors) constantly, creating new and improved gadgets and software, continually pushing the PC envelope outward. They are a pre-eminent "player" in this industry.
When they screw up big time, this will change. But they are on such a roll now that the envelope is expanding rapidly, and they are expanding with it. Even the Pentium FDIV fiasco did not de-rail Intel and that was a touchy situation.
If the NC or some variant succeeds and Intel doesn't react, then the game may be over. Twelve months have gone by since the NC was announced and I have heard many, many product announcements but have yet to see a product being shipped. IBM's (NCDI) NC seems to be the closest, but let's face it - that IS an X-TERMINAL, and more expensive than a cheap PC.
In the near future, the DVD will become a reality. This should open up the PC to more and more applications as excelllent video quality/quantity titles become available as well as long play CD quality audio. (Of course, Microsoft's operating systems will soon require DVD density just to ship on one disk.) This one item (and there are many others) will propel the PC busines - people will just plug them into their existing PCs or buy new ones with them installed.
Remember - the pure NC has no local storage, hence no local expansion capability to add new peripherals. This limits their upgradability, a feature that has been the basis of the PC since day 1. Imagine buying an NC today and not being able to plug a DVD into it when they become available sometime next year. Money down the drain.
A good comparison may be the original Apple MACs. These were a closed system - no expansion in memory or I/O. Apple corrected that in about 18 months after the original MAC was shipped.
Paul |
