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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?
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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (3465)6/16/1997 9:56:00 PM
From: J.S.   of 13594
 
Jim,

Many of these services are not "fully updated" for long periods
of time. The numbers tend to be, but even then one has to be careful.
In this case, this is just a conservative estimate made several
quarters back. However, AOL was claiming above 8 mil and now has
backtracked. If people can get subscribership info from other than
the horse's mouth then they really have a scoop.

I'm waiting for CSRV's numbers tomorrow, if Zacks can be trusted, and
have tried to calculate q4 revenue from subscribership guesstimates.
I wish I had solid info.

My guess about 1.5 million foreign members in
CSi, 350,000 sprynets, 1.5 million North American CSi'ers (2.4 million
Nifties which are just licencees and add little to revenue). This
gives Interactive revs of about 145 to 155 million (averaging membership growth and decline through the quarter) plus about 80
million in network services and "other" revenues gives about 225 to
235 million. Hopefully they have kept costs down so that loss after
taxes will be less than .06/share. If the high revenue estimate is
right (and cost cutting moves maintained) they could actually make
a profit of a few cents/share. Who knows what hairbrained scheme
the management could have dreamed up for spending money? AOL may
spend $2.00 for marketing for $1.00 in revenue, but sometimes CSRV
spends $5.00 in content costs for every $1.00 of new revenue.

Fingers Crossed,
Joe
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