My EOY review of GERN
INTRO Here's my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Geron
GERN (market cap was $0.633B mid 2015 is $0.766B EOY2015)
Geron is a leading edge biotech that has been on the leading edge so long that pieces are breaking off and competitors are catching up. Geron has sold off most of their major divisions and is left with a cancer treatment based on managing telomerase, the molecule that controls cell growth and death. By controlling cell growth and death, cancer cells can regain their natural tendency to die. The implication is that, even though Geron is concentrating on one cancer (blood disorders), the technique should be applicable to many cancers. By controlling cell growth and death, there is also the possibility of treating auto-immune diseases where cells die prematurely. The treatment has made it into phase 2/3 clinical trials; but as is common with innovative treatments, the US FDA has interrupted the process to allow deeper review. The treatment is now being considered for worldwide studies in partnership with another firm.
Geron has a lot of potential. That may be one reason its market cap is about three-quarters of a billion dollars for a company with insignificant revenues. The present value of the future revenues is impressive. Geron is also challenged by the same issues of many innovative biotechs. Regulatory approval is more difficult than usual, partly because every aspect is challenged if the treatment challenges entrenched technologies, institutions, and attitudes. The potential reward is great, and so are the risks.
I continue to Hold because they may succeed, and I have a large enough holding to benefit if they do.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 and continuing to hold (though I sold much, partly for diversification, partly to raise funds.)
(I've also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog trimbathcreative.wordpress.com |
