Over-optimism is the cause of market crashes, and all
sorts of excesses (real estate, stocks, futures, lotto,
horseracing, etc.). But, my optimism is very short term,
and it's based on patterns that have seemed fairly
unchangeable over the past 30 years.
First--my "January Effect" study showed the Nov - Jan
are by far the best months of the year in terms of
stock market performance. So, I am fully invested now
through the end of January -- but after that I'll be
back to short-term trading.
The NASDAQ bull market is also pretty entrenched. So,
all of my money is in FDEGX, the #1 rated mid-cap
high-tech fund over the past 5 years, which essentially
climbs with the NASDAQ.
I really doubt this market will turn into a bear before
the end of January. But, even after that, it looks to
me like Y2K will produce a boom.
But eventually, the piper has to be paid. We've got a
-4% savings rate right now. When the consumers finally
decide they're out of money, it's going to be wicked,
very very scary.
fuzzymath
farnham@MathematicalAnalysis.com
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