Win,
AMD moves up! Well, on pricewatch anyway, where AMD listings have been moved ahead of Intel offerings on the processor page
I bet in the DIY market, AMD has a clear lead, so it only makes sense, for the convenience of the buyers. I don't know anyone in his right mind would spend $228 on 1 GHz P3 or $239 on 1.3 GHz P4 if 1.33 GHz Athlon is $221.
It seems to me that the availability of the 200 MHz FSB parts is going to dry up in the near future. Of the remaining Athlon processors, Price Watch shows these entries:
1.00 GHz 266 MHz FSB $151
1.13 GHz 266 MHz FSB $175
1.20 GHz 266 MHz FSB $197
1.33 GHz 266 MHz FSB $221
These are very aggressive prices. As of today, Athlon probably brings in ASP of $150, but to maintain this pricing, 1.40 GHz will be needed at the beginning of May, and 1.46 or 1.33 at the beginning of June.
But I think the price cuts are something to think about. Last time AMD dropped the prices this drastically was the beginning of December, when it was clear that the supply was exceeding demand. After a fairly strong Q1, I wonder if we are back to some slowness.
The aggressive price cuts in December it seems brought so much demand that Jerry said that AMD was hand to mouth with Athlon. One think to watch for in the CC is any news about the state of the ramp of Dresden fab. It is possible that AMD accelerated the wafer starts around January, and now the increased supply has hit the market.
From some circumstantial evidence, it seems to me that there was a temporary shortage of Athlon processors as AMD was switching from the older stepping to the AXIA stepping. And now, it looks like the AXIA stepping "tidal wave" has hit the market.
One site that is kind of useful for reading the supply and demand is this: tccomputers.com
They showed Athlons 1 GHz and 1.2 GHz move to Allocation status sometimes in February, with some speed grades unavailable. Now, within the last 2 weeks, it seems that a lot of additional supply became available.
Of course there is another piece of the equation, and that is OEM sales. One way to explain all of this (in a negative way) would be a slowing demand from OEMs. The positive spin is increased supply. I hope there will be enough tidbits in the CC to answer this question.
joe |
