If they get a Nuke, we had better hope he's right.
Ahmadinejad's ambition and impact
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
OP-ED: Iran's leaders are worried about history's forward march, By Said Amir Arjomand, Daily Star, February 04, 2010 Link
Key description forms the basics of my analysis for a while now:
n the 20 years since Khomeini's death, the composition of this political class has changed drastically. The clerical elite has gradually lost power to the military-security groups, from whose ranks the president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, emerged. Bureaucratic and security services dominated by the Revolutionary Guards and its militia, the Basij (the Mobilization Corps), are now firmly in command. The supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, blessed the Revolutionary Guards' decision to steal the presidential election. By identifying squarely with the military-security apparatus headed by Ahmadinejad, Khamenei has alienated an important segment of the ruling clerical elite. He has also reduced his own status as the ultimate arbiter in Iranian society, a role that was central to Khomeini's dominance of the system. As a result, he has produced a rupture between the two pillars of the revolutionary regime: the clerical elite and the military-security structure.
In a nutshell, no better description of Ahmadinejad's ambition--and impact. Basic takeaway: those who argue we face a religious extremist leadership in Iran do not recognize this profound evolution of the revolution there. Iran is not ruled by religious nutcases. The clerics were sacrificed in favor of a military mafia, which certainly rules with the most base intent, but that does not make them "crazy" or "irrational." We do ourselves a disservice when we cling to out-of-date stereotypes. Ahmadinejad's alleged craziness is more fox-like than we care to admit. |
