Janko, Your private message deserves a public response.
This was a tough weekend for me, as I believe it was for others in this sandbox. As I indicated in my BAMBI update, I made a decision to go strong equity on an intuitive feeling. Alas, even a blind man can occassionally find the light switch.
When BAMBI is Bullish, I believe it is reasonable to let the profits run. When BAMBI is Bearish, as it is now, preservation of capital is of paramount importance. The buy and sell targets on the spreadsheet are, unavoidably, based upon my view of the equity markets. It is an art and not a science.
My view of the the buy and sell targets is based upon my BAMBI view of where we are today. Clearly, I sold AIG too soon today at 90 5/8. However, I expect a flat week and I'll take the gain. On a 1,000 shares, not bad.
But, I equally believe I'll be able to buy the stocks back at a lesser price. Such are the subjective arguments that we must make. The big issue to pay attention to is the long-term trend; it's of paramount importance. We must expect that that a stock will honor the long-term trend. otherwise, it is just wasted effort!
Berney |
